JustArsenal’s Euro 24 Predictions Group D – Analysis of France, Holland, Poland and Austria’s chances

Dan’s Euro 2024 Predictions – Group D

Two Gunners in this group although will both play? Kiwior 100 percent starts for Poland but, despite being recognised In England as one of the best defenders In the Prem, Deschamp has never been in a rush to play Saliba.

There’s just something the manager doesn’t trust about the 23-year-old, saying In March: ‘“He is having a good season, but he also does things that I don’t like so much,” Deschamps said then. “For France, he has limited game time, but when he plays, that hasn’t necessarily gone well’

Respect to Giroud as well.

At 37, will retire from international football after the Euros.

Once a Gooner, always a Gooner

France 1st

I think this is quite an open tournament because there is not an outstanding team at this Euros. Yet if there is one it is France, who without question have one of the best players in the world in Mbappe.

He’s the talent at this competition you can rely on more than anyone else to provide that moment of magic. In knockout football where the line between success and failure is so small that having that option is massive. Apparently some Gooners don’t think he would make Arsenal better, but I fail to see where his perceived ‘attitude problems’ have cost him trophies. So far just the 19 medals at the age of 25!

It will at least be 21 years since our last title!

Look at the class on and off the pitch he displayed in the World Cup Final. Also recall the injuries Les Bleus had to deal with in Qatar. The players Deschamp leaves out of his squads is scary. I like that their manager sticks to his convictions, never giving in to pressure to drop Giroud or play Saliba.

Deep into a quarters and semi-Final, the French have a group of players who know how to get over the line, having got to three of their last 4 Finals. No other country currently have that much known how. Law of averages they can’t keep getting to Finals and are due some luck? That’s the only argument I can make.

Previous Golden Generations eventually self-imploded after success, but even if that happens in Germany it’s hard to see how they don’t get out of the Group. Blame the current format for this

Netherlands 2nd

In previous Euros, the French and Dutch playing each other in their second game would be the highlight of the group stages especially if one slipped up in their opener.

UEFA have ruined that with their current format where if both win on Matchday One they play each other without any real consequence.

The Netherlands have on paper one of the best defences at the tournament (a potential back three of Ake, VVD and De Ligt, Frimpong at full back) but do they have the attack to be potential winners (still relying on Depay)?

For years it used to be the other way around.

It’s also very un-Dutch for the harmony in the squad, almost a club-like atmosphere.

The second time Ronald Koeman has been in charge, he knows how important it is to his country to play their proud brand of football.

Yet he’s smart enough to be more direct or conservative against better opponents, often switching to a back 5.

Could be a breakout tournament for the likes of Gakpo and Simons but enough to win knockout football?

The only major thing they have won was the Euros in 1988. That was held in Germany!

Their boss played in that Final!

So, a couple of omens.

Outside of that, I’m not sure they are realistic contenders.

Just like qualifying will beat the rest but not quite on France’s level.

Austria -3rd

Unlike a Poland there’s a real feel-good factor in Austria regarding their national team.

If it wasn’t for injuries, I would be a lot more confident about them qualifying in third, but squad depth can’t afford injuries. Will be without Alaba, Xaver Schlager and if Alexander Schlager can’t prove his fitness they will start without their first-choice keeper.

Even if patched up, the Austrian’s won’t abandon the principles set up by Ralf Rangnick which is a high press to win the ball back quick, and attack.

It’s this ethos why I would pick them to at least beat Poland, although that could be a draw.

Mr Rangnick might have been mocked for his time In Manchester, but his reputation is now so high he turned down an interview for the Bayern Munich vacancy.

Just a shame about those injuries. Without them I would even suggest they give the Dutch a fight for 2nd spot.

Poland – 4th

You sense the Euros are almost in the way for Michal Probierz?

The manager is aware that the public’s perception of the national team is at an all-time low and that’s not going to be changed in the short term.

Fans are used to their nation qualifying, but then only winning twice (out of 14) once at the European Championship.

They didn’t finish in the top two of their qualifying group, only being granted a playoff spot because of the National League.

Just think about that!

The Poles failed to finish top two of their qualifying group and then could not finish in the top two of this Group yet be in the last 16.

That forced Fernando Santos to be sacked in September. With understandably the result the only thing that mattered in the play offs, the new regime have had barely any time to implement an ethos.

In truth Poland have been horrible to watch for a long time. At 35, Lewandowski now relies on service, and that creativity from his peers isn’t obvious.

Under the current format, beating Austria could be enough to be in the last 16 (which is crazy) but can they set up to win a game?

Wouldn’t shock me if 3rd/4th is separated by who loses heaviest to the top 2.

I’ll give them a slim chance due to Austria’s injuries

Dan Smith

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